GLOBAL FINANCIAL TURMOIL! Central Banks Sell US Bonds&Buy Gold Post Credit Downgrade!|AsianQuickTake
Welcome to Asian QuickTake! I’m Jacob, your host for deep dives into global affairs, international relations, and tech trends. Today, we dissect a major financial market event: Fitch Ratings downgrading the US credit rating.
In early August, Fitch Ratings shook the market by downgrading the US credit rating from AAA to AA . This first downgrade since 1994 raises crucial questions. Fitch cites ongoing debt ceiling disputes and fiscal outlook deterioration for the rating drop.
The ripple effect was swift. Fitch projects the US fiscal deficit to widen, debt-to-GDP ratio to surpass 118% by 2025. A looming recession risk in Q4 2023-Q1 2024 has heightened market uncertainty.
US Treasury Secretary Yellen contests the downgrade, asserting the safety of US Treasury securities. Reports hint at failed efforts to prevent the downgrade, highlighting the risk of a US debt crisis.
Investors flock to gold for stability amid inflation fears, propelling central banks’ gold reserves up. China’s gold demand surged by 17%, enhancing its financial autonomy.
The US fiscal deficit could escalate from 3.7% (2022) to 6.3% (2023), stressing federal revenues, rising spending, and heavier interest loads. With debt doubling in a decade, reaching $32.7 trillion, the threat of repayment failure looms.
Efforts to address fiscal deficits involve higher federal borrowing. Uncertainty prompts Americans to shift from banks to gold, indicating US financial system doubts.
Recalling the 2011 downgrade, when Standard & Poor’s lowered the US to AA , this time Fitch’s decision and its joining Standard & Poor’s heighten concerns about US Treasury bonds’ safety.
World Gold Council data reveal central banks buying 387 tons of gold H1 2023, as global gold demand strengthens by 6%.
China’s US Treasury bonds holding dropped 35% in a decade, while increased gold purchases align with its financial strategy, reducing reliance on US bonds.
Amid US bond market decline and escalating global risks, gold’s appeal grows. As political-economic risks surge, gold could reach $10,000 per ounce, with China catalyzing this rise.
China’s gold reserves, kept secret, are expanding as China ups gold purchases as part of its financial strategy, reflecting US credit woes and challenging the USD’s reserve status.
The US faces a credit crisis, while China accelerates gold purchases. This signals a shift in global reserve currency dynamics, potentially jeopardizing US bonds.
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