JULY ENDS WITH RUSSIA’S VICTORY BUT BRINGS THREAT OF MAJOR ESCALATION

Another month of hostilities in Ukraine is coming to its end. July of 2024 brought important tactical victories to the Russian army. Over the last month, Russian forces took control of one of the largest areas since the beginning of the year. The advance of the Russian army is comparable to the gains made in the spring of 2022. The Russian military maintains the military initiative and continues offensive operations along the entire frontline, preventing the Armed Forces of Ukraine from accumulating large reserves in any one direction. After the Russian army launched an offensive in the Kharkiv region and contained large Ukrainian forces near the border, it managed to achieve major territorial gains in the Donbass. The Pokrovsk direction, where the Ukrainian defense cannot stop crumbling, remains one of the most dangerous areas for the Ukrainian military. At the same time, the ongoing Russian attacks are bringing gains in other areas as well. Kyiv’s patrons in Washington are finishing this month with new dangerous gifts. The United States has announced another $200 million worth of military assistance to Ukraine. The Americans paid special attention to the supply of anti-aircraft missiles for medium and short-range air defense systems, a serious shortage of which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are currently suffering. Russian reconnaissance drones that are coordinating the strikes and are targeting various bombs and missiles at strategically important Ukrainian facilities operating without any obstacles over the Ukrainian rear cities. Kyiv’s other Western friends are also escalating the threat of a major military escalation. Poland announced a number of military operations to begin on August 1. In particular, the air operation called Eastern Dawn and Safe Podlachia overland operation will be launched in the eastern and southeastern parts of the country. These are not exercises, but military operations that allegedly have defensive goals. In fact, the Polish military is preparing for an escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, which may spread to NATO territory. Moreover, Warsaw is ready to ignite it. Warsaw signed a joint defense agreement with Ukraine. The Poles were willing to shot down Russian missiles and declared their readiness to provide their airfields to deploy the F-16 fighters gifted to Ukraine by NATO. The Kremlin warned that the Ukrainian F-16 bases will become legitimate targets for Russian strikes. In July, numerous flights of F-16 air groups of NATO countries in the airspace bordering Ukraine were recorded. Some flights were carried out with transponders turned off. NATO aircraft increased operations at airfields in Poland and Romania, including at night. An operational game on the covert transfer of F-16 aircraft to the Air Force of Ukraine has been held near the Ukrainian border. Presumably, NATO is preparing to launch an air operation in Ukraine, and the Polish Air Force gets ready to enter the war.