Why War Economies don’t collapse (until they do) - why Russia and Ukraine won’t collapse tomorrow

By popular vote, welcome to a bit of war economics 101. There are few things people have been keener to predict throughout history than ’quick’ wars. Pro Russian commentators after February 24th 2022 expected a rapid victory - while Western media was quick to suggest that Russia’s economy was collapsing soon after sanctions were implemented. Instead, both Ukraine and Russia show signs of increasing their wartime production and scaling up their armed forces. That should not come as a surprise. Historically, the process of converting from a civilian to a wartime economy has yielded more than enough results to overcome even significant trauma inflicted on the industrial base (for example, strategic bombing attacks). Russia’s economy is suffering, it’s long term economic prospects have been badly wounded by a collapse in international trust, market denial, and a barrage of sanctions. Ukraine’s economy is likewise under immense pressure - primarily from physical attac