[CNBC Television] The oil market is now focused on a demand recovery, but not without risk: Rystad Energy
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Bjørnar Tonhaugen, head of oil markets at Rystad Energy, discusses what to expect from the OPEC meeting, and how long it may take energy companies along the Gulf coast to recover from Hurricane Ida. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:
Hurricane Ida temporarily shut down a critical swath of U.S. oil production and refining operations, and that should keep crude and retail gasoline prices at already elevated levels.
Now a tropical storm, Ida swept across the Gulf of Mexico production area before slamming into the Louisiana coast Sunday as a Category 4 storm, bringing torrents of rain, high winds and high tides. More than 1 million Louisiana utility customers were without power early Monday.
The energy industry was working Monday to assess when it could restore refining operations across Louisiana and oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, which were taken offline as a precautionary measure.
Oil prices were slightly higher Monday after jumping 10% last week. However, West Texas Intermediate futures — which traded at about $69 per barrel — are still down over 6.5% for the month. Nearly all Gulf of Mexico oil production was shut in, accounting for about 15% of the U.S. total.
“The reaction is mixed because we avoided the worst-case scenario,” Again Capital John Kilduff said. “But supplies are tight, and that could impact prices, especially since we are moving into the peak period for storms, and weather worries are going to persist around the market for the next several weeks. As for supply, the cupboard was kind of bare going into this.”
The shut in operations in the Gulf of Mexico should resume to normal if no damage is found. The hit to supplies from the hurricane comes as OPEC meets this week.
OPEC is widely expected to restore the 400,000 barrels a day of production it had previously committed to return to the market. The Biden administration had asked Saudi Arabia and OPEC for more supply to be restored.
But the cartel and its associates, like Russia, are expected to restore only the planned amount of oil to the market. “They’re not coming to rescue us from $70 oil,” Kilduff said.
Crude inventories are at the lowest level since January 2020. Crude supply has fallen for three straight weeks, while fuel demand has reached its highest level since March 2020, according to data released last week by the Energy Information Administration.
Price impact for Labor Day
Gasoline supplies could also be impacted temporarily by Ida, with refineries shut down across the region. The Colonial Pipeline — a key artery transporting gasoline from Houston, across the South and up to the Northeast — was partially shut down. The company said it expected the pipeline to resume service later Monday, pending restart protocols, according to Reuters. Terminals continued to distribute gasoline.
“The consumer should not expect gasoline prices are going to go down this week,” Lipow Oil Associates President Andrew Lipow said. Analysts expect gasoline prices to rise 5 cents to 10 cents per gallon by the Labor Day weekend for some consumers, particularly in the southern and eastern U.S.
The average national price for unleaded gasoline was $ per gallon Monday, down a penny from a week ago, according to AAA. The price is the highest for a Labor Day weekend in seven years and up sharply from the $ per gallon price at this time last year.
It’s unclear when refining operations will be restored to normal, since it may be difficult to move personnel back to the impacted area.
“Pretty much everything in Baton Rouge, New Orleans area is shut down, representing 12.5% of the nation’s refining capacity,” Lipow said.
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