IRAN STRIKES BACK

After weeks of restraint, Iran launched a large-scale missile attack against Israel on October 1, targeting key military and intelligence bases in the center and the south of the country and sending around ten million people into bomb shelters. The attack, codenamed “Operation True Promise 2,” was carried out in response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of the Hamas Movement, in Tehran last July, and the recent assassinations of Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian General Abbas Nilforoushan in the Lebanese capital of Beirut, according to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Between 181-200 ballistic missiles were launched during the attack, including a number of Fattah-1 hypersonic medium-range missiles. Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Major General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri said that the targets of the attacks included the headquarters of the Mossad spy agency, which he identified as the “center for terrorism,” Nevatim Air Base that houses its F-35 warplanes, and the Hatzerim Air Base that played a key role in Nasrallah’s assassination. Other targets included strategic radars and gatherings of Israeli troops and vehicles taking part in massacres against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Videos posted to social networks showed dozens of hits. Still, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced that it intercepted “a large number” of Iranian missiles during the attack. Israel’s air defenses were “effective,” the IDF said in a statement. The United States also participated in the defense of Israel, both by detecting the threat from Iran ahead of time and intercepting some of the missiles, according to the military. The IDF admitted there were impacts in central Israel and several more impacts in southern Israel. However, it said that there was no damage to the “competence” of the Israeli Air Force (IAF) in the attack, and said the IAF’s planes, air defenses, and air traffic control were operating normally. Jordan’s Public Security Directorate also said that its air defenses intercepted missiles and drones as Iran attacked Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned after the attack by Tehran that it had made “a big mistake” and “will pay for it.” From its side, Iran warned that any attack by Israel will be met with an even stronger attack with reports of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei ordering retaliatory strikes on Israeli infrastructure. Tehran and its allies also warned the U.S. and its allies in the region of aiding any Israeli attack on its territory. All in all, the unexpected Iranian attack complicated the situation for Israel which continues to struggle in Gaza and had just launched a ground invasion into Lebanon. Israel does not appear to be capable of affording a confrontation with Tehran while engaging in a war on two other fronts. However, Israel could still drag the U.S. into the conflict.