Will limited economic impact of Israel-Hamas conflict continue?

이-팔 전쟁의 미미한 경제적 영향 여러 시나리오에서 바라본 국내외 경제에 미치는 영향은? It’s been almost three weeks since the Hamas attack on Israel sparked concern over rising economic uncertainty, especially in terms of volatility in energy prices and rising inflationary pressure. Our business correspondent Shin Ha-young explains the economic impact of scenarios that could play out in the Middle East. Since the beginning of the Israel-Hamas conflict, all eyes have been on global oil prices, which can push up inflation both at home and abroad. Global oil prices jumped more than 4 percent on the third day of the Israel-Hamas conflict, which was the biggest one-day gain since April 3rd. However, even though oil prices rebounded as of Wednesday after prices fell on Tuesday for the third straight session, fluctuations have been less significant for the past few days. This came amid diplomatic efforts from a number of countries to release hostages. Also, Israel has not yet launched a ground invasion due to international pressure, alleviating concerns about disruptions in oil supply. But, it’s too early to predict the actual economic impact as it’s uncertain how the conflict will unfold. Bloomberg Economics estimates that if the conflict extends to a war between Israel and Iran, it could push oil prices to 1-hundred-50 dollars a barrel and drop global growth to 1-point-7 percent. This is because of Iran’s proximity to the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil trading route. “If Iran disrupts oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, or even blocks the strait, it could significantly impact global oil prices. This is because about 30 percent of the volume of the world’s total oil consumption passes through that route.“ Meanwhile, unlike the Ukraine war, in the case of the Israel-Palestine conflict, the region’s contribution to global raw material production is not substantial. According to a report from the Korea International Trade Association, Israel and Palestine each account for less than 0-point-4 percent of South Korea’s overall trade, meaning the effect is expected to be insignificant. However, the author of the report said it’s necessary to diversify the supply chain of certain items. “South Korea heavily depends on Israel for key items, including bromine and airborne radar for aircraft. With an import dependency exceeding 90 percent for these items, a prolonged Israel-Hamas conflict could pose challenges for South Korea. Therefore, it is crucial to diversify the supply chain to secure alternative suppliers.“ He added that a prolonged war could potentially disrupt the supply chains in these advanced industries as Israel is a hub for this sector, where there are R&D centers and sales offices of South Korean firms like Samsung and SK hynix. Shin Ha-young, Arirang News. #Israel #Hamas #Oil #Economic_impact #이스라엘 #하마스 #경제 #Arirang_News #아리랑뉴스 📣 Facebook : 📣 Twitter : 📣 Homepage : 2023-10-26, 21:00 (KST)